Japan’s 20-year government bond yields have hit their highest level since 2008, which might be a sign that people are steering clear of risky stuff. The rising Japanese bond yields and talk of a possible rate hike from the Bank of Japan are stirring up worries about a big dip in Bitcoin (BTC). Traders are even eyeing a drop to $70,000 for Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainties, the ongoing tariff trade war, and the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on cutting interest rates in 2025 are all adding to the chances of Bitcoin’s value taking a tumble. Crypto fans might need to buckle up for some bumpy times, as Japan’s 20-year government bond yields reaching their highest since 2008 have historically been a reason for folks to shy away from risky assets like Bitcoin (BTC).
With speculation about a potential rate hike from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and growing inflation pressures, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields shot up to 2.265% last week—the highest since the global financial crisis. These are vibes similar to August 2024, when a stronger yen triggered a sell-off worldwide, from stocks to Bitcoin, as Coindesk reported back then. The spike in Japanese bond yields, paired with geopolitical and economic uncertainties, is making traders nervous that BTC could see a major correction. Higher yields hint that the Bank of Japan might raise interest rates to tackle inflation or manage its huge public debt. Rising yields in Japan often signal broader global economic uncertainty or tighter financial conditions. That strengthens the yen, which can make carry trades less appealing—those are when investors borrow in yen to invest in high-yield assets like BTC. So, traders are targeting a $70,000 low for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, especially with bigger economic shocks, the tariff trade war, and a general lack of market catalysts after the U.S. presidential elections.
Jeff Mei, the Chief Operating Officer at BTSE, told Coindesk in a Telegram message, “We think institutions are cutting back on their crypto holdings because of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and Bitcoin’s price could drop to $70,000-$80,000 in the coming weeks.” He added, “Only when this tariff war wraps up and the Fed starts cutting rates again will the top cryptocurrency climb back toward its all-time highs.” This reflects growing concerns about the impact of U.S. trade policies and the Federal Reserve’s cautious take on interest rate cuts in 2025. Augustine Fan, Head of Insights at SignalPlus, painted a pretty grim technical picture: “Price swings have turned technically super negative, and high real volatility has messed up BTC’s risk-adjusted profile, with few (if any) immediate positive catalysts on the horizon.”
